What Should the Pirates do with Bryan Reynolds?

 

On Thursday, April 14, reports were out that the Pittsburgh Pirates and Bryan Reynolds agreed on a two year contract extension. Reynolds will be set to earn $6.75 million in both 2022 and 2023. These two years were both originally set to be arbitration years for Reynolds, and he still can head to arbitration in 2024 and 2025. The most important thing to note is that the switch-hitting outfielder is still eligible to sign with any team in unrestricted free agency in the off-season before the 2026 season. 

There are three realistic possibilities of what the Pirates can do with Reynolds at this point and I will break each of them down, and then give my opinion on which route I think the Pirates should take. Before I proceed to break down the three potential paths, it is important to go through some things first.

Pittsburgh is a team that does not have the ability to sign big money free agents at all. For this 2022 season, their biggest free agent signing was Catcher Roberto Perez at $5 million. We can make the assumption that they will not being dishing out a Corey Seager-style contract (10 years, $325 million) like the Rangers did. This means the primary way the Pirates will build their roster for the next few years is through the draft and through trades.

I started out by projecting what the Pirates roster would like like in 2025 with the key prospects and key young players on their roster currently. There is a very solid young core brewing. Here are some potential cornerstones with the age they will be in 2025 in parenthesis:

SP Quinn Priester (25)

SP Roansy Contreras (25)

C Henry Davis (25)

2B Nick Gonzales (25)

SS Oneil Cruz (26)

3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (28)

*2022 MLB Draft 4th Overall Pick (21-24)

This is a very solid young core that could give the Pirates the ability to contend in 2025. The only problem is 2025 would be Reynolds' last year of team control. If the Pirates want a chance at any sustained success, that could be a problem if he left after that year.

This brings me to my first possibility of what the Pirates could do.

Don't Extend and Don't Trade Reynolds

This would be the worst case scenario for the Pirates and would make the least amount of sense. We already established that the Pirates do not have the money available to be able to bid with other teams if Reynolds makes it to the open market. So if they don't extend him and they don't trade him, they will lose him for nothing. Then in 2026, they will have lost a huge hole in their lineup and in their clubhouse and will not get any compensation for it. One of the roster building philosophies that I am most passionate about is you cannot lose free agents for nothing especially if you are a small market team. The Pirates cannot let this happen to them.

Option number two is probably going to make a lot of Pirates fans angry but it is better than the option above.

Trade Reynolds well before 2025

Look at what the Red Sox did with Mookie Betts in 2020. They knew he was not going to resign with the team before free agency, so they traded him to the Dodgers along with David Price and got back Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong. Verdugo has turned into a solid outfielder in Boston and Downs & Wong have not had the time just yet to establish themselves. There are many other factors besides the one I am about to mention, but the Red Sox are contenders today in 2022 partly because they got Alex Verdugo in a trade for a player who was going to leave them. I draw many comparisons with the situation the Pirates are in with Reynolds to Boston and Betts. The Pirates do have more leverage because they have many more years of control of Reynolds than the Red Sox had of Betts. There is a lot of uncertainty if Reynolds will resign with Pittsburgh, but if there are any hiccups in negotiations, there should be heavy discussions to move him to another team. The solid Pirates core could look like this if they decide to trade him:

SP Quinn Priester (25)

SP Roansy Contreras (25)

C Henry Davis (25)

2B Nick Gonzales (25)

SS Oneil Cruz (26)

3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (28)

*2022 MLB Draft 4th Overall Pick (21-24)

*Player or Two Received in Reynolds Trade (22-25)

If the Pirates and Reynolds are not close on any deal, trading him sooner rather than later could help the Pirates get a much better return.

Option number three is what I would like to see the Pirates do.

Sign Reynolds to an Extension

This should be the ultimate goal for the Pirates. Take a a look at what the core could look like with Reynolds under contract beyond 2025.

SP Quinn Priester (24)

SP Roansy Contreras (25)

C Henry Davis (25)

2B Nick Gonzales (25)

SS Oneil Cruz (26)

3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (28)

OF Bryan Reynolds (30)

*2022 MLB Draft 4th Overall Pick (21-24)

Part of the reason I like this better than the core under the "Trade Reynolds well before 2025" section is because it is very hard to turn prospects into stars like Reynolds. If any of the prospects received turn out to be as productive as Reynolds, the Pirates should consider themselves lucky. There is no guaranteed prospect, so it makes sense to do your best to extend him. You know what you have with him. Some people may be concerned with paying an aging player like Reynolds when they are going to be on the wrong side of 30 soon. The reason I have such high confidence in Reynolds being productive for many years to come is because of how simple his swing is. There is not a lot of wasted movement. Reynolds stays balanced and uses all parts of the field effectively. He has a great 2 strike approach and has impressively low strikeout rates. He has shown an ability to take his walks and keep a solid OBP. Defensively, he does not have an elite arm, but he will never be a liability in the field. With the DH coming to the NL, that is also a help to keep aging players in the lineup and fresher.

My hope is for the Pirates to lock up Reynolds through the 2027 season with a pair of club options in 2028 and 2029. I think below would be a fair deal for both sides. It keeps Reynolds as the star of the team and it gets him guaranteed money.

2022: $6.75M

2023: $6.75M

2024: $11M (Arb Year)

2025: $13M (Arb Year)

2026: $16M

2027: $17M

2028: $18M Option, $5M Buyout

2029: $18M Option

2025 and 2026 could be the years the Pirates return to serious contention again. What Pittsburgh decides to do with Bryan Reynolds in 2022 could have an incredible effect of how their roster will look in the near future.

2022 MLB Predictions

Below are all my team predictions and awards predictions for the 2022 MLB Season. 

MLB Regular Season

NL East Winner: (2) Atlanta Braves

NL Central Winner: (3) St. Louis Cardinals

NL West Winner: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wild Cards: (4) San Diego Padres, (5) New York Mets, (6) Milwaukee Brewers

AL East Winner: (2) Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central Winner: (1) Chicago White Sox

AL West Winner: (3) Houston Astros

AL Wild Cards: (4) New York Yankees, (5) Boston Red Sox, (6) Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Post Season

Wild Card Series

(6) Milwaukee Brewers over the (3) St. Louis Cardinals, 2-0

(5) New York Mets over the (4) San Diego Padres, 2-0

(3) Houston Astros over the (6) Tampa Bay Rays, 2-1

(4) New York Yankees over the (5) Boston Red Sox, 2-1

Division Series

(1) Los Angeles Dodgers over the (5) New York Mets, 3-1

(2) Atlanta Braves over the (6) Milwaukee Brewers, 3-1

(1) Chicago White Sox over the (4) New York Yankees, 3-1

(2) Toronto Blue Jays over the (3) Houston Astros, 3-2

Championship Series

(2) Atlanta Braves over the (1) Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-2

(1) Chicago White Sox over the (2) Toronto Blue Jays, 4-2

World Series

(1) Chicago White Sox over the (2) Atlanta Braves, 4-2

Awards

MVP

NL: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

AL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

Cy Young

NL: Max Scherzer, SP, Mets

AL: Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

ROY

NL: Hunter Greene, SP, Reds

AL: Bobby Witt Jr., 3B, Royals

Manager of the Year

NL: Buck Showalter, Mets

AL: Charlie Montoyo, Blue Jays

Reliever of the Year

NL: Josh Hader, RP, Brewers

AL: Raisel Iglesias, RP, Angels

All-MLB Teams

First Team

C: JT Realmuto, Phillies

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

2B: Jose Altuve, Astros

3B: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

SS: Carlos Correa, Twins

OF: Juan Soto, Nationals

OF: Mookie Betts, Dodgers

OF: Bryce Harper, Phillies

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

SP: Gerrit Cole, Yankees

SP: Max Scherzer, Mets

SP: Walker Buehler, Dodgers

SP: Corbin Burnes: Brewers

SP: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins

RP: Josh Hader, Brewers

RP: Raisel Iglesias, Reds

Second Team

C: Will Smith, Dodgers

1B: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

2B: Ozzie Albies, Braves

3B: Rafael Devers: Red Sox

SS: Corey Seager, Rangers

OF: Mike Trout, Angels

OF: George Springer, Blue Jays

OF: Bryan Reynolds. Pirates

DH: Nick Castellanos, Phillies

SP: Zack Wheeler, Phillies

SP: Brandon Woodruff, Brewers

SP: Shane Bieber, Guardians

SP: Logan Webb, Giants

SP: Noah Syndergaard, Angels

RP: Liam Hendriks, White Sox

RP: Ryan Pressly, Astros